According to Kerry-Ann Walsh the future of the Australian population is in dire straights unless a healthy immigration level is introduced by the Government.
Using a few data projection techniques, Chris Lloyd illustrates something quite different.
The current TFR [total fertility rate] in Australia, as in the average number of children a woman will have, is 1.97. According to Chris’ data, which assumes zero net immigration, a population of 22.1 million in 2010 will increase to 24.6 million by 2050. Hardly disappearing.
Even in the worst case scenario, if the TFR drops to 1.80, the baby bonus is abolished and net overseas migration rates are reduced from 200,000 to 100,000 per year, the extreme of what is politically possible, the total population is still projected to increase to 28.7 million by 2050 and continue to grow.
For the finer details of Chris’ data projections, visit CoRE Economics.
Chris Lloyd’s expertise is in the fields of statistics, data analysis and market research within both academic and business environments. For more on his Executive Series session starting on 28 February, click here.
Mark Crosby’s academic interests are in the areas of international economics, with a particular interest in how exchange rates function.
Interview | Mark Crosby | ABC 612 Brisbane | 3 November 2010
Madonna King says Treasurer Wayne Swan has promised reform for banks but it is too late for yesterday's increase by the Commonwealth Bank. She says Westpac has just reported an 84% jump in profit. Interview with Mark Crosby, Associate Dean, Melbourne Business School, Melbourne University. Crosby says he doesn't think new regulations are desirable in Australia as the current ones are good. He says the public perception that banks are taking us for a ride is unfounded. Crosby says some of Joe Hockey's suggestions were reasonable. He says the issue is more politics than economics. Crosby says banks are more regulated than in the US. He says he expects the other banks to follow the Commonwealth Bank and increase their rates. Crosby says share holders are not gouging everyone else.
Article | Mark Crosby | Australian Financial Review | 10 November 2010
FORGET THIS GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY, AFR, pg 21
Robert Zoellick, president of the World Bank, recently suggested a possible return to an international gold standard for currency. However, there are numerous theoretical and practical arguments against such a move, and central banks such as the Reserve Bank of Australia have demonstrated that there are better ways to control inflation and international accounts.
Source: MBS Media Coverage
