Is the Australian population disappearing? | Chris Lloyd

According to Kerry-Ann Walsh the future of the Australian population is in dire straights unless a healthy immigration level is introduced by the Government.

Using a few data projection techniques, Chris Lloyd illustrates something quite different.

The current TFR [total fertility rate] in Australia, as in the average number of children a woman will have, is 1.97. According to Chris’ data, which assumes zero net immigration, a population of 22.1 million in 2010 will increase to 24.6 million by 2050. Hardly disappearing. 

Even in the worst case scenario, if the TFR drops to 1.80, the baby bonus is abolished and net overseas migration rates are reduced from 200,000 to 100,000 per year, the extreme of what is politically possible, the total population is still projected to increase to 28.7 million by 2050 and continue to grow.

For the finer details of Chris’ data projections, visit CoRE Economics. 

Chris Lloyd

Chris Lloyd’s expertise is in the fields of statistics, data analysis and market research within both academic and business environments. For more on his Executive Series session starting on 28 February, click here.